Jock Rosario is a 'gift'

If you haven’t been riding the success of Jockey Rosario Montanez, you’ve been missing one of the smartest value bets of the Belmont Park season.  Today, the jock hung tough to set off an outstanding exotic windfall aboard Chasintheblues (naturally, a ‘mover/) in the 9th race.  Don’t overlook anything he rides! 

Talk about 'sour grapes'

For those who didn’t understand, here’s the translation of  owner Steven Coburn’s remarks after ‘Ameriica's Horse’ lost the Belmont stakes.  “If I don’t get my way, change the rules!”  How tacky!

Norumbega, $22, first Belmont Stakes Day winning mover

The first 'monster mover' of Belmont Stakes Day to score is Norumbega in the 1 1/2 mile Brooklyn. Trained by Shug McGaughey and ridden by Joel Rosario the 4-year-old rallied in deep stretch at 101.  Moreover, Norumbega's win completed both a pick-three and a double.  And, guarantees a payoff in the next double.

May General A-Rod follow suit. 

Meanwhile, in Gulfstream  Park's first race…a mover starts the day

In General, Belmont Stakes comes up Rosey.

Remember, you heard it hear first.  If Chrome comes up short, this may be the headline shouted around the world. For the second time in this year's triple crown races, I am faced with a 'monster-move.'  And, this one is live.  Considering all the trouble General A Rod encountered, he continued to rally.  

If the Belmont Stakes distance proves more than the others can handle. General has a great shot at great odds.  From the 'move' running line  we already know the horse was not tired.  Maker and Rosey are a great j/t combination.  Imagine if she becomes only the second woman in history to win a triple crown race. Julie Krone won the Belmont  in 1993. I will be there to collect.

Constructing a 'solid' move wager

Time is shrinking.  It's one of the reasons posts to this site, recently, have been few. Valuing the minutes, becoming seconds, that life permits me to deal with horse race handicapping, I have been focusing on being selective.  Fewer, larger bets has always been my goal.  So, I have  been sitting on my hands a lot.  My infamous impatience is taking a real beating.

But, for the first time, I am posting a full move on the site.  Hopefully, this is a lesson I can refer to when impatience sends me to the windows less sure of myself.

Thinkofyou ran in the 5th race at Gulfstream, yesterday--a 5F maiden claiming turf event.  The running line immediately caught my attention.  I am familiar with trainer Jose Garafolo as one of the more successful 'move' masters.  Granted the filly hadn't been out since February.  Recent works indicate sharpness. 

Wasn't really impressed with the stats of jockey Olivero.  But, one look at the success of the j/t combination keeps the filly as a contender. 

Only two other horses –the fav and second fave–in the lousy race have better Beyer numbers.  The final and convincing straw, for me, is a considerable drop in class.

I'm not Sherlock Holmes, but the evidence was overwhelming enough to make a larger than normal wager across the board and an exacta box with the favorite.

The reward for this analysis shows in the result chart.

Now, if I can just convince my patience to WAIT for the full banana to open my wallet, I'll be better off.  Had I  done so, my wager on this mover would have been considerably larger.  No sour grapes, though.  That's the move!

'Wild' mover at Gulf

Monsters: One for Sun.

No DRF for two days??????

For two days technical problems have made the Daily Racing Form website unavailable to the public.  So, I'm sitting on my hands after biting off all of my nails. My record-keeping has allowed me to make a few teeny bets at Belmont.  The most important, so far, was Get Gorgeous, $14.80.

What  occurs  to me, during this forced vacation, is that  90% of regular players  wager without buying the past performances. 

One question!  How can you do it?

'Mover' filly runs in The Preakness

Just for posterity. And, out of respect for the 'monster move,' I am betting Ria Antonia across the board in today's Preakness. The filly shows the move in her last running line.  Although the rest of her pps don't indicate she has even a ghost of a chance, it has happened before.

There are some interesting happenings surrounding the long shot, however.  She has been handed over to premier trainer Thom  Amos from none-other than Bob Baffert.  She gets Calvin Borel, with something to prove after his atrocious ride in the Kentucky Derby. She is the second highest money earner n the race and  she  beat the boys in her maiden win.

Most importantly, I would have to kill myself if she finishes in the money and I don't bet her.  Expect 30-1.

'Midnight Missile' rally yields P3

Midnght Missile rallied past dueling speedsters to reward me with Belmont's first Pick-3

Just one

Mover runs second, Tuesday, at Parx.

'Move' in tow; Use 'The Givens'

Had to wait all day for this monster mover.

Now that the 'monster method' is a proven commodity, I can get back to writing this blog for myself.  The whole idea, originally, was to keep tabs on my  wagering.

Faced with an ever decreasing amount of time to handicap- and  with 'the move' in my arsenal- I am getting  automatic with most of my bets.  This test  system is based on the 'givens;' stats that prove true about the game year-in, year-out.

So, crazy as it sounds, I will postulate  that without in-depth handicapping the second-favorite is the best bet in any race.  

Statistically, first or second favorites win 50% of the time.  Typically, the favorite is overbet .  This is my starting point.   

Using  exactas,  I will-automatically- box the second and third favorites,  Should the second fav show odds of 3-1, play an exacta with the favorite second.  Three bets.

I have now trimmed hours off of my handicapping time. 

Of course, I will take a cursory glance at the rest of the field for long shots. Stay tuned.

Tesseron saves the day.

Long day, several near wins, lots of bad rides.  First clear win was Tesseron at the end of the day.  Mover, J. Velasquez up, yielded a small profit.

What?…and Sssh!

For the life of me, can’t figure why the public made a horse in this rotten Big A field 1/2. Can’t say the same for See About Me, the only ‘mover’ in the race.  A 2 exacta wheel cost $10; returned $183.

Apparently, the forced time off from wagering has done me some good. I'm picking my spots,  analyzing better, seeing clearly and haven't had a losing day since my return.  Movers are still performing well, but even my NYRA and stretch bets are coming in.  Sssh! Don't tell the bucket-hole maker.

I'm back…and in the winner's circle

Mover Sir Jeffrey Image welcomed me back with a decent score, today.

And, by the way…Why I don't use Formulator

Formulator is a fabulous product. But. for the old dogs, like me, who handicap on screen, it's practically useless.  You see, to simplify my evaluation process of 18 or more races each day, I like to mark-up my form.  So, i use the Classic in  PDF that allows me  to highlight, cross out, circle and generally make a mess of the page. Just like if I had a hard copy.

Two years, ago, I suggested markup tools to DRF.  No word, no change, yet.  Wish I could use it.  Formulator is a fabulous product.

Better for the bettor

I have begun to recover from the personal issues that have forced me to suspend my posting to this blog and to limit the time I have for pursuing horse racing. A few bets here and there.

Now that I'm back, what is immediately noticeable are the vigorous marketing campaigns by both Daily Racing Form and The New York Racing Association to gain membership in  the online wagering wars.  

I will,  again, suggest that they focus their efforts on improving the experience of bettors already using  their  existing, frustrating interfaces.  I have accounts with both.

The industry leader DRF is by far the worst. Sign in with a link from  their past performances and the fan is unable to access the normal services provided by a direct sign in on the website. Access Ticketmaker from your account and its necessary to sign in once  to make the bet and again to get back to your account. Ridiculous.

 Additionally, the system has the annoying habit of defaulting to win betting should a fan change courses in mid-stream.  Lately, I have to manually change races as we move through the day.

Not to be outdone, NYRA Rewards (which offers two interfaces)  has been afflicted with the latter  problem.  I have, previously discussed–at length–the more than 3-minute delay in posting deposits and withdrawals. Come on folks. 

Twin-Spires doesn't have these problems. I have an account there, too, for when the others can't give me what I  need.

There are millions of tekkies out there, who could fix these problems in an instant.  Find and hire them. Then, go back to your marketing

How about, first, doing something better for the bettor!

At least look!

In Aqueduct's second race, today, back on the main track Renard's Lapin was listed at 1/5.  The horse's Beyer was obviously a stand out. Coming from Gulfstream, It appeared to be the only speed. Furthermore, the filly was trained by formidable Todd Pletcher. A cinch, right? Not for me.

Trainer, Bruce Levine, was sending out Long Blooming Rose, jockey Meijas up.  From experience, I knew the unpopular jock can hold his own. Long first raced at Parx at odds of 3-1 with an almost 'move' running line.  The nondescript second race was on the dismal IDT at the Big A.  Importantly, the first and third finishers in race two had wins next out.  For me, this information and a 15-1 price was enough. Long won, outlasting a late rally by the second favorite.

Ya gotta at least look!

'Secret' starts day with a bang at Gulf

Broadway Secret delivered the perfect start to a day at Gulfstream. Horse showed back to back moves ridden by jock Ed Zayas.  Figured to be sent today.  Was much the best.  Collected across the board and all of the exotics.  Wagering is now slowed to  a crawl. They're not going to get me today!

Big A, Parx yield four move winners

Recency: 'Mover' exceptions

I've found that, with sufficient evidence, movers can be an exception to the usual recency considerations. Jewellian n Roses showed the required running line three months ago. Unknown trainer hoisted capable Villa Gomez up for this ride.  Horse showed the second highest Beyer at  both the track and the distance.  Finally, it was dropping in half from $16,000. What else do you need?

In addition to across the board wagers, exacta and double wheels. Horse romped.

Bucket plugging notes to self 1

In this blog, I have repeatedly said that 'the move is a monster when it hits.' The operative word in that statement is 'when.'  And, it has everything to do with my attempts to plug the wagering hole. 

Had I the patience to  only bet convincing 'monster-moves,'  guarantee my ROI would increase. I have tried. But, my need for gratification seeks opportunities with my non-move bets–best Beyers, lone speed, etc.  I am already taking the worst of it by analyzing 'bad' races (maidens, one win, for example)

Facing the reality that 50% of races are won by the first-or second-favorite should give me some decent perspective. On the average nine race card, that leaves maybe two or three possibles for long-shots. 

I hope I'm listening.

Of all the important handicapping factors, the one I pay least attention to is recency. That is where I will start.

A break from hole-plugging

This mover won by open lengths.

Cover Price gets perfect ride

Keep your eyes on Parx jockey Pedro Roquena.  He rode 15-1 mover Cover Story to a perfect length win in race 4, today.  Jcok showed patience, position and judgement. The horse completed a move double with War Story in the third for $196.  See chart for straight prices.

PRN gives 'move' a 7

Thanks to the Phillips Racing Newsletter  for validating  the 'Monster Move' with a decent grade 7. All i wanted was to prove the system is of value.  With that done, I can move on.  

There's a hole in the bucket

To bet or not to bet.  That's still the question. 

After more than 30 years as a 'long-shot' horseplayer, it has just sunken in that there is a really large hole in my game.  I've talked about it, complained about the lack of time available to correct and on and on.  My wagering is too frequent and haphazard.

Overall I am a decent handicapper, but I lack a  wagering strategy to match  my skills. Hence, the recent lack of posts to this blog.  I win on front-running, pace horses, especially when I can justify a 'monster move (see chart). Wagering in these situations is automatic–across the board and an exacta box with the favorite.

My review pointed out a  gigantic problem is with additional exotics wagers. I end up trying to win a bet rather than identifying a better opportunity. To stop the bleeding, I am betting only where I can predict an open-length win (see Hundred Acres).  Otherwise its back to the three bet 'second-third favorite' box. Stay tuned

More than before

In this blog, I've given enough examples of 'monster move' winners to fill a book (sic).   It occurs to me that my efforts to trumpet the system have left out a good deal of other  'real-world' information–qualifying factors, phantom moves, losers, etc.

Realistically, I don't have the the time to delve into these areas when showing a simple chart will do.  Veteran handicappers

understand that everything isn't all peachy creamy all the time.  From now on, I will attempt to give a broader picture of my handicapping process.

For instance, here–in order of importance–are qualifying factors AFTER i locate a 'move' running line.

• A decent Beyer  or performance at today's distance

• Competitive or superior early pace performance

• Successful jock and/or trainer–especially those with a 'move' history

• No obvious dislike for the track, surface or conditions

• Equipment or surface change

• Odds

See DRF data for all of the above.  Happy handicapping!

Slim–winning–pickins' thanks to weather

With all the bad weather cancellations around the country, it's difficult to find any wager save a viable 'move' horse. Never fear.  First at Parx was an easy win for Limestone Cowboy.  Was alive with five pick-threes when officials canceled the remaining card, paying consolations.

At Turf Paradise, Put Your Pants On got 'lipped at the wire. Damn. Some healing with the place and show prices.  Missed a double and triple, though.

'Move' seconds, sufficient $

One residual benefit of researching 'monster-move' long-shots is  familiarity with jocks who tend to ride for a price. Bad weather shut my normal tracks so I added Tampa Bay to the menu.  In  race 5, I  was relatively confident that mover Hi-Tech Dave was going to run well. So I automatically bet across the board and exacta boxed the 8-1 shot with the favorite.  Then, I noticed Jock Pedroza (a favorite long rider) atop an impossible 53-1 shot. What to do? What would you do? Enough to say I was more than rewarded for Hi's second place finish.

Ditto in Gulfstream's seventh.  Where Hallowed's second place finish was more than sufficient.  And, I ain't just talking place and show prices. The 'move' is a monster when it hits.

…Gulfstream, later in the day

Strong wager on clear mover Sensational Value, although the horse showed turf race in last.  Three layoff races in a row were moves.  Importantly, Trainer Cibelli asked jock Joe Rocco to ride.  Horse finished clear second to a speed-baller (see chart) and set up $294 superfecta.  Nothing wrong with those place and show prices, either.

Next race, Alondra Sky finished third at 48-1 to pay $16.80. Enough action for you?

Re-analysis of a tough race…

I make it habit to 'understand' results.–as quickly as possible. Elusive Harmony won the first race at Gulfstream, today, virtually wire-to-wire; defeating  class drop mover Aunt Anna.  I was alive with three doubles including an obvious mover.

Several of the other six had interesting goings-on–especially One Proud Gal.  Premier jockey JC Caraballo was named to ride.  The horse was dropping to a new lower level and upon closer examination Gal qualified two races back as a 'monster mover.' 

This wasn't the textbook move, because the horse wasn't positioned up close at the first two calls. But she ran close to a super fast pace.  JC up, showed the trainer believed Gal could compete. And, her odds were 10-1. It was enough for me to treat her as a single. Win, Place, Show and a multiple exacta box with another move horse. Ran first and second.The results? See the chart.

More 'mover' success at Parx

Parx served up another good 'move' on it's card. Four horses in the fourth  showed the all important running line including favorite Apollo Beach. Across the board bets on the two longest shots. Because of a previous competitive Beyer figure an exacta wheel with Chicanery.  Look at the 'mover' exacta.  Helluva day!

Early Valentine's 'Candy,' $49

Who could ask for more?  Parx Racing, today, gave us one of the clearest monster moves I've ever seen.  So surprising was the result that it initiated three foul claims, including two (fictional) against convincing winner Candy's Luck, $49.80.

Southern Journey displayed a 'move' in it's last race, Candy showed a more impressive 'move' two races back. Pace and Jockey analyses gave Candy a distinct edge.  The 23-1 odds didn't hurt.  Horse won easily

Collected across the board and all possible exotics.  Waiting for the result of 'my 'weighted (multiple tickets)' daily double wheel.  Whooopee!

Weighted mover Bryanna's Song got nipped at the wire by 30-1 shot to pay $15.20 for place.  This double was larger, but killed my pick three.

No complaints!

A 'Bit' of a score…for second

Way to start a day!

A second mover in the next plus the all button = $900 pick three

'Political' correct winner $35; 'mover' exacta $300

What to do when  there is more than one 'monster move' in a race? Compare, trainer/jockey success, distance, early speed. In this case, two of the three moves had run 1:10 in the last race. With giant odds bet both across the board. 

Political Justice was 0-10 at the distance and the track.  Today, the horse lead wire-to-wire at 17-1.  The other mover ran second for a 'monstrous' exacta.  Look at the prices.

Easy game–sometimes

Listening to track TV handicappers analyze the final race at Gulfstream, I could only smile.  My amusement had little to do with their real or imagined selection skills. On a day when the sloppy track repeatedly  rewarded early speed, the 'experts' examined the decimated field for some horse to fit the bill. No mention was made of the 'move-obvious' eventual wire-to-wire winner. Sawyer was a 4-1 gift for the few of us who could read beyond the horrible looking running line.

I climbed all over this opportunity!

The pros had the right idea, We had the right tools. It's an easy game.

Back with a 'Victory'

After a month-long sabbatical, I have returned to action.  And my commitment to the move paid off immediately.   At Parx,, in the second race, familiar move trainer Ramon Preciado sent out five-year-old Victory Tale off of two moves a month apart.  Jockey Bermudez was up (not my favorite).  There were two other movers in the race.  But the decision was easy.  

According to my records, Preciado can be counted on to SEND his move horses off of a drop.  And, although other factors carried no weight, the 16-1 odds were inviting. Result? Victory was the only horse to challenge the favorite and held for second.  Look at the place and show prices.