In this blog, I have repeatedly said that 'the move is a monster when it hits.' The operative word in that statement is 'when.' And, it has everything to do with my attempts to plug the wagering hole.
Had I the patience to only bet convincing 'monster-moves,' guarantee my ROI would increase. I have tried. But, my need for gratification seeks opportunities with my non-move bets–best Beyers, lone speed, etc. I am already taking the worst of it by analyzing 'bad' races (maidens, one win, for example)
Facing the reality that 50% of races are won by the first-or second-favorite should give me some decent perspective. On the average nine race card, that leaves maybe two or three possibles for long-shots.
I hope I'm listening.
Of all the important handicapping factors, the one I pay least attention to is recency. That is where I will start.
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