Jock Rosario is a 'gift'

If you haven’t been riding the success of Jockey Rosario Montanez, you’ve been missing one of the smartest value bets of the Belmont Park season.  Today, the jock hung tough to set off an outstanding exotic windfall aboard Chasintheblues (naturally, a ‘mover/) in the 9th race.  Don’t overlook anything he rides! 

Talk about 'sour grapes'

For those who didn’t understand, here’s the translation of  owner Steven Coburn’s remarks after ‘Ameriica's Horse’ lost the Belmont stakes.  “If I don’t get my way, change the rules!”  How tacky!

Norumbega, $22, first Belmont Stakes Day winning mover

The first 'monster mover' of Belmont Stakes Day to score is Norumbega in the 1 1/2 mile Brooklyn. Trained by Shug McGaughey and ridden by Joel Rosario the 4-year-old rallied in deep stretch at 101.  Moreover, Norumbega's win completed both a pick-three and a double.  And, guarantees a payoff in the next double.

May General A-Rod follow suit. 

Meanwhile, in Gulfstream  Park's first race…a mover starts the day

In General, Belmont Stakes comes up Rosey.

Remember, you heard it hear first.  If Chrome comes up short, this may be the headline shouted around the world. For the second time in this year's triple crown races, I am faced with a 'monster-move.'  And, this one is live.  Considering all the trouble General A Rod encountered, he continued to rally.  

If the Belmont Stakes distance proves more than the others can handle. General has a great shot at great odds.  From the 'move' running line  we already know the horse was not tired.  Maker and Rosey are a great j/t combination.  Imagine if she becomes only the second woman in history to win a triple crown race. Julie Krone won the Belmont  in 1993. I will be there to collect.

Constructing a 'solid' move wager

Time is shrinking.  It's one of the reasons posts to this site, recently, have been few. Valuing the minutes, becoming seconds, that life permits me to deal with horse race handicapping, I have been focusing on being selective.  Fewer, larger bets has always been my goal.  So, I have  been sitting on my hands a lot.  My infamous impatience is taking a real beating.

But, for the first time, I am posting a full move on the site.  Hopefully, this is a lesson I can refer to when impatience sends me to the windows less sure of myself.

Thinkofyou ran in the 5th race at Gulfstream, yesterday--a 5F maiden claiming turf event.  The running line immediately caught my attention.  I am familiar with trainer Jose Garafolo as one of the more successful 'move' masters.  Granted the filly hadn't been out since February.  Recent works indicate sharpness. 

Wasn't really impressed with the stats of jockey Olivero.  But, one look at the success of the j/t combination keeps the filly as a contender. 

Only two other horses –the fav and second fave–in the lousy race have better Beyer numbers.  The final and convincing straw, for me, is a considerable drop in class.

I'm not Sherlock Holmes, but the evidence was overwhelming enough to make a larger than normal wager across the board and an exacta box with the favorite.

The reward for this analysis shows in the result chart.

Now, if I can just convince my patience to WAIT for the full banana to open my wallet, I'll be better off.  Had I  done so, my wager on this mover would have been considerably larger.  No sour grapes, though.  That's the move!

'Wild' mover at Gulf

Monsters: One for Sun.

No DRF for two days??????

For two days technical problems have made the Daily Racing Form website unavailable to the public.  So, I'm sitting on my hands after biting off all of my nails. My record-keeping has allowed me to make a few teeny bets at Belmont.  The most important, so far, was Get Gorgeous, $14.80.

What  occurs  to me, during this forced vacation, is that  90% of regular players  wager without buying the past performances. 

One question!  How can you do it?

'Mover' filly runs in The Preakness

Just for posterity. And, out of respect for the 'monster move,' I am betting Ria Antonia across the board in today's Preakness. The filly shows the move in her last running line.  Although the rest of her pps don't indicate she has even a ghost of a chance, it has happened before.

There are some interesting happenings surrounding the long shot, however.  She has been handed over to premier trainer Thom  Amos from none-other than Bob Baffert.  She gets Calvin Borel, with something to prove after his atrocious ride in the Kentucky Derby. She is the second highest money earner n the race and  she  beat the boys in her maiden win.

Most importantly, I would have to kill myself if she finishes in the money and I don't bet her.  Expect 30-1.

'Midnight Missile' rally yields P3

Midnght Missile rallied past dueling speedsters to reward me with Belmont's first Pick-3

Just one

Mover runs second, Tuesday, at Parx.

'Move' in tow; Use 'The Givens'

Had to wait all day for this monster mover.

Now that the 'monster method' is a proven commodity, I can get back to writing this blog for myself.  The whole idea, originally, was to keep tabs on my  wagering.

Faced with an ever decreasing amount of time to handicap- and  with 'the move' in my arsenal- I am getting  automatic with most of my bets.  This test  system is based on the 'givens;' stats that prove true about the game year-in, year-out.

So, crazy as it sounds, I will postulate  that without in-depth handicapping the second-favorite is the best bet in any race.  

Statistically, first or second favorites win 50% of the time.  Typically, the favorite is overbet .  This is my starting point.   

Using  exactas,  I will-automatically- box the second and third favorites,  Should the second fav show odds of 3-1, play an exacta with the favorite second.  Three bets.

I have now trimmed hours off of my handicapping time. 

Of course, I will take a cursory glance at the rest of the field for long shots. Stay tuned.

Tesseron saves the day.

Long day, several near wins, lots of bad rides.  First clear win was Tesseron at the end of the day.  Mover, J. Velasquez up, yielded a small profit.

What?…and Sssh!

For the life of me, can’t figure why the public made a horse in this rotten Big A field 1/2. Can’t say the same for See About Me, the only ‘mover’ in the race.  A 2 exacta wheel cost $10; returned $183.

Apparently, the forced time off from wagering has done me some good. I'm picking my spots,  analyzing better, seeing clearly and haven't had a losing day since my return.  Movers are still performing well, but even my NYRA and stretch bets are coming in.  Sssh! Don't tell the bucket-hole maker.

I'm back…and in the winner's circle

Mover Sir Jeffrey Image welcomed me back with a decent score, today.

And, by the way…Why I don't use Formulator

Formulator is a fabulous product. But. for the old dogs, like me, who handicap on screen, it's practically useless.  You see, to simplify my evaluation process of 18 or more races each day, I like to mark-up my form.  So, i use the Classic in  PDF that allows me  to highlight, cross out, circle and generally make a mess of the page. Just like if I had a hard copy.

Two years, ago, I suggested markup tools to DRF.  No word, no change, yet.  Wish I could use it.  Formulator is a fabulous product.

Better for the bettor

I have begun to recover from the personal issues that have forced me to suspend my posting to this blog and to limit the time I have for pursuing horse racing. A few bets here and there.

Now that I'm back, what is immediately noticeable are the vigorous marketing campaigns by both Daily Racing Form and The New York Racing Association to gain membership in  the online wagering wars.  

I will,  again, suggest that they focus their efforts on improving the experience of bettors already using  their  existing, frustrating interfaces.  I have accounts with both.

The industry leader DRF is by far the worst. Sign in with a link from  their past performances and the fan is unable to access the normal services provided by a direct sign in on the website. Access Ticketmaker from your account and its necessary to sign in once  to make the bet and again to get back to your account. Ridiculous.

 Additionally, the system has the annoying habit of defaulting to win betting should a fan change courses in mid-stream.  Lately, I have to manually change races as we move through the day.

Not to be outdone, NYRA Rewards (which offers two interfaces)  has been afflicted with the latter  problem.  I have, previously discussed–at length–the more than 3-minute delay in posting deposits and withdrawals. Come on folks. 

Twin-Spires doesn't have these problems. I have an account there, too, for when the others can't give me what I  need.

There are millions of tekkies out there, who could fix these problems in an instant.  Find and hire them. Then, go back to your marketing

How about, first, doing something better for the bettor!

At least look!

In Aqueduct's second race, today, back on the main track Renard's Lapin was listed at 1/5.  The horse's Beyer was obviously a stand out. Coming from Gulfstream, It appeared to be the only speed. Furthermore, the filly was trained by formidable Todd Pletcher. A cinch, right? Not for me.

Trainer, Bruce Levine, was sending out Long Blooming Rose, jockey Meijas up.  From experience, I knew the unpopular jock can hold his own. Long first raced at Parx at odds of 3-1 with an almost 'move' running line.  The nondescript second race was on the dismal IDT at the Big A.  Importantly, the first and third finishers in race two had wins next out.  For me, this information and a 15-1 price was enough. Long won, outlasting a late rally by the second favorite.

Ya gotta at least look!

'Secret' starts day with a bang at Gulf

Broadway Secret delivered the perfect start to a day at Gulfstream. Horse showed back to back moves ridden by jock Ed Zayas.  Figured to be sent today.  Was much the best.  Collected across the board and all of the exotics.  Wagering is now slowed to  a crawl. They're not going to get me today!

Big A, Parx yield four move winners