At least look!

In Aqueduct's second race, today, back on the main track Renard's Lapin was listed at 1/5.  The horse's Beyer was obviously a stand out. Coming from Gulfstream, It appeared to be the only speed. Furthermore, the filly was trained by formidable Todd Pletcher. A cinch, right? Not for me.

Trainer, Bruce Levine, was sending out Long Blooming Rose, jockey Meijas up.  From experience, I knew the unpopular jock can hold his own. Long first raced at Parx at odds of 3-1 with an almost 'move' running line.  The nondescript second race was on the dismal IDT at the Big A.  Importantly, the first and third finishers in race two had wins next out.  For me, this information and a 15-1 price was enough. Long won, outlasting a late rally by the second favorite.

Ya gotta at least look!

'Secret' starts day with a bang at Gulf

Broadway Secret delivered the perfect start to a day at Gulfstream. Horse showed back to back moves ridden by jock Ed Zayas.  Figured to be sent today.  Was much the best.  Collected across the board and all of the exotics.  Wagering is now slowed to  a crawl. They're not going to get me today!

Big A, Parx yield four move winners

Recency: 'Mover' exceptions

I've found that, with sufficient evidence, movers can be an exception to the usual recency considerations. Jewellian n Roses showed the required running line three months ago. Unknown trainer hoisted capable Villa Gomez up for this ride.  Horse showed the second highest Beyer at  both the track and the distance.  Finally, it was dropping in half from $16,000. What else do you need?

In addition to across the board wagers, exacta and double wheels. Horse romped.

Bucket plugging notes to self 1

In this blog, I have repeatedly said that 'the move is a monster when it hits.' The operative word in that statement is 'when.'  And, it has everything to do with my attempts to plug the wagering hole. 

Had I the patience to  only bet convincing 'monster-moves,'  guarantee my ROI would increase. I have tried. But, my need for gratification seeks opportunities with my non-move bets–best Beyers, lone speed, etc.  I am already taking the worst of it by analyzing 'bad' races (maidens, one win, for example)

Facing the reality that 50% of races are won by the first-or second-favorite should give me some decent perspective. On the average nine race card, that leaves maybe two or three possibles for long-shots. 

I hope I'm listening.

Of all the important handicapping factors, the one I pay least attention to is recency. That is where I will start.

A break from hole-plugging

This mover won by open lengths.

Cover Price gets perfect ride

Keep your eyes on Parx jockey Pedro Roquena.  He rode 15-1 mover Cover Story to a perfect length win in race 4, today.  Jcok showed patience, position and judgement. The horse completed a move double with War Story in the third for $196.  See chart for straight prices.

PRN gives 'move' a 7

Thanks to the Phillips Racing Newsletter  for validating  the 'Monster Move' with a decent grade 7. All i wanted was to prove the system is of value.  With that done, I can move on.  

There's a hole in the bucket

To bet or not to bet.  That's still the question. 

After more than 30 years as a 'long-shot' horseplayer, it has just sunken in that there is a really large hole in my game.  I've talked about it, complained about the lack of time available to correct and on and on.  My wagering is too frequent and haphazard.

Overall I am a decent handicapper, but I lack a  wagering strategy to match  my skills. Hence, the recent lack of posts to this blog.  I win on front-running, pace horses, especially when I can justify a 'monster move (see chart). Wagering in these situations is automatic–across the board and an exacta box with the favorite.

My review pointed out a  gigantic problem is with additional exotics wagers. I end up trying to win a bet rather than identifying a better opportunity. To stop the bleeding, I am betting only where I can predict an open-length win (see Hundred Acres).  Otherwise its back to the three bet 'second-third favorite' box. Stay tuned