Nothing drives me more crazy than to waste handicapping time and a wager on a horse that is not trying today. Add odds-on favoritism to that equation and you understand why I don't bet short-priced horses as a rule.
Stated, flatly: Every horse in a race is not entered to win. Some simply have no chance or merely are out for exercise–to build speed, stamina, as a precursor to changing surface or distance. Or, merely for a workout towards another race, next week or next month. All the past performances in the world won't tell whether the barn is trying today.
Intent is always the hidden factor in handicapping any race.
By definition, the Monster Move, requires a player to justify what--on paper--looks like a lousy effort. Just raising the question can prove whether or not the horse is 'a go.'
But when the extra digging leads to a conclusion that the barn is seeking a score at a larger than expected price. Well, that's called 'value.'
Case, in point, Trainer Schosberg tested Saturday Appeal with three 'moves' at sprint and distances before removing the blinkers and sending the colt for a $34 score at 6 furlongs. Schosberg's intent was clear as a bell to 'move' players.
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