Aargh! One that got away–and why

In it's last race Christiesborntorun showed, probably, the cleanest monster move I have seen in weeks–albeit at a track other than Aqueduct. Trainer Jason Servis is one of my favorites and was dropping Christie into  a claimer for the first time.  But the horse was being ridden by  jockey M. Franco who boasted a dismal record of one for forever.  No wins. No seconds. No thirds. He  (she?) broke his own maiden with this $88 winner. I didn't have one dime on it.

I can forgive myself  for not trusting the jock.  Truthfully, if  I wasn't currently  in 'slump-mode,' I would have bet $2 or $3  to win. No suicide plans.

Baby, I'm Back (Bayou)

While I am still taking it slow 'slump-wise,'  I felt strongly enough about two horses in Gulfstream's fourth to put my money where my mouth is. Thank, you-know-who I did.  A previously troubled Sherry Angel (two-back mover) looked like a second-favorite geared to win.  And, last race mover Back Bayou showed completive Beyers.  $3 Win Place and Show on Bayou. Exacta box with the two.  Total of $13 out of my allotted $50 for the day.

I had no idea the public was going to permit Bayou to get away at 58-1

It's difficult enough to half-heartedly handicap every day knowing I have to restrain myself from betting. Can't imagine which suicide manual I would have used without a bet on this result.

Not back, yet. But, seriously flush.  The 'move'  is a monster.

Built-in Humility

This 'game' will keep you humble.  And, I use the word 'game,' loosely. After a few unbelievably profitable months, I am now mired in the midst of a three-week slump.

I have: 

• checked to see that my skills are still intact (see previous post)

• cut back my wagering unit  to $2

• changed my wager to only straight betting

• tightened my qualifications for even the smallest wager

These seem to be the logical steps to take.  Yet, when I open past performances, nowadays, it's like Greek to me. During this period, the statistics are adjusting themselves.  At my selected tracks, favorites and near favorites are winning everything. Those few long-shots  that score, don't  make any sense to me–even after the race.  I can't find a decent bet no matter how rigid I structure my approach.

 Then, it hit me.  When I win my behavior is relaxed, loose and confident:  the exact opposite of  the 'slump' regulations listed above.  Conclusion? There is no way to force a turnaround.  Apparently, it's not my turn.

 The only thing left to do is to sit on my hands and  wait it out.  Bye.  Stay tuned.

Surviving the slump

It happens to everyone.  Something you've been doing 'oh so right' has disappeared from your wagering game. And,  for too long a period of time you can't seem to hit the side of a barn. You are bleeding money.

The worst slump  of my life, caused me to retire from this game for more than a year. This one is not that bad--just under two weeks.  My wagering unit is back to $2; strategy:  straight bet.

About the best one can hope for, while waiting out the drought is evidence that skills are still in tact. In that regard,  I confidently bet Waquoit's Dance (Bocachica up) across the board in Gulf's the fifth race.  The horse finished second and the stewards  flashed an inquiry sign before deciding that Dance Diamonds' (Prado up) numerous stretch bumps were insufficient to elevate my 22-1 shot.  Bad luck, but skills in tact.  

Any doubt was confirmed by mover Midnite Silver winning the seventh.

Intent: Key handicapping factor

Nothing drives me more crazy than to waste handicapping time and a wager on a horse that is not trying today. Add odds-on favoritism to that equation and you understand why I don't bet  short-priced horses as a rule.

Stated, flatly: Every horse in a race is not entered to win.  Some simply have no chance or merely are out for exercise–to build speed, stamina, as a precursor to changing surface or distance.  Or, merely for a workout towards another race, next week or next month.  All the past performances  in the world won't tell  whether the barn is trying today.  

Intent is always the hidden factor in handicapping any race. 

By definition, the Monster Move, requires a player to justify what--on paper--looks like a lousy effort. Just raising the question can prove whether or not the horse is 'a go.' 

But when the extra digging  leads to a conclusion that the barn is seeking a score at a larger than expected price.  Well, that's called 'value.'

Case, in point, Trainer Schosberg tested Saturday Appeal with three 'moves' at sprint and distances before removing the blinkers and sending the colt for a $34 score at 6 furlongs.  Schosberg's intent was clear as a bell to 'move' players.

One more, again!

See yesterday's post about 'mover' payoffs for finishing second. Nuff said.

Every winner doesn't win

The 'move' doesn't always win.  But it runs second often enough at decent prices that the player can still profit. Such was the case with Ambusher in Gulf's seventh race.  The horse paid $12.20, $ 7.20 as runner-up to a first-timer. 

Minutes later, in the eighth Town Flirt, repeated the scenario at $11, $7.20. Sure, I would have loved to collect $30 on the win end. But, how much can you complain about 5-1 for second?  The 'move' is a monster!