Little promise for Tomas

I don't hold out much promise for the future of apprentice P. Tomas at NYRA tracks after the atrocious ride on Readtsetketch in the 7th at Aqueduct today.  The 28-1 shot would have been at least second, if not for the kid's ineptness.  Even after steadying on the backstretch Ready was running well on its own.  The horse was well meant.   At the top of the stretch, rather than go outside of the leader, genius dives to a 'fictional' hole on the rail and gets repeatedly shut off.  He nearly went down. 

 (for those of you who wondered why the Stews took so long to make the race official.  Guarantee it was about Tomas' ride. The DRF  result chart comment is almost as long as 'War and Peace.")

It's difficult enough, finding a valid move at NYRA tracks, just to watch it destroyed by a non-rider..  

My own fault for betting him?

I  haven't been impressed with the kid's rides that I've seen. Because I can usually trust trainer James Jerkens to sit a competent 'jock on his horses, i took a shot..  Still, thank God,  my wager was smaller than it would have been had I trusted Tomas.

Can't imagine how many win tickets  the ride cost Jerkens. Phew!

I've said it before...

I will state, flatly, for the gazillionth time that there is no feeling like watching your selected 10-or-20 to one horse rallying to win  when you've got a significant wager waiting to be collected.  I am sure there are comparable joys, but not many of them. Such is the case with  Black Onyx in the seventh race at Gulftream, yesterday.

Beyond the required move, the horse was: Being ridden by one of the consistently leading jocks; Trained by a stellar conditioner--and sporting a credible backstory.   Onyx was making it's first start on turf--after attempting to do so unsuccessfully twice.  The uninformed crowd was destined to avoid the horse like the plague. 'Move players knew As the touts say ' confidence was high."

'Booyah' for real

Talk about the virtue of patience. Saturday,  I  rescued what seemed to be a futile,  dismal day at  the races by resisting my natural impatience urge.  

The search for 'move' horses  expanded to three tracks--Aqueduct, Gulfstream, and Fairgrounds. Big A was playing to obvious speed for the past few days  (resulting in small prices) and I had suffered confusion in the slop at Gulfstream, my featured track.  So FG became my third option.

After  Why Who ($26) won the second at Gulf, I was hard pressed to find another wagering opportunity.  I scaled my betting unit back from $5 to $2. No luck, until Seventy Six ran second in Big A's seventh race.  Still, I was antsy and getting bored.

I was resigned to having my first losing day in a week when  pps in Aqueduct's tenth reached out and slapped me in the face. 

Bwana Booyah  wasn't a 'move' horse.  But, it qualified for my second favorite method--a horse showing superior speed to pre-stretch, then collapsing. Most players assume this  type of  horse is a quitter and stay away. For me, the superior pace quarter is a hint about possible improvement.  While 46.3 is no great shakes it was blazing  for entrants in this 16000 maiden claimer.. Addtonally, Booyah was perfect to take advantage of the IDT 'speed--bias.

At 11-1, i bet $10 across the board, another $10 to show and  $1triple-wheeled the horse in front and in back of the favorite.  By post-time Booyah's odds drifted  way up.  It won by a city-block  (See the chart).  It's an easy game (sic).

Riding not exactly 'movers'

Not every 'move' is exact. Those that pay the most require some analysis, added justification and--most importantly--faith in the system.  Take MJ Plus at Parx, in the slop, yesterday. Horse had not run since December. Running line was a close to 'move.'  Jockey and trainer were non-factors--except for  trainer Scanlan's  stat success with route to sprints. MJ showed decent wet-track performances.

But, the horse was dropping to the lowest level in it's career.  Worth a wager? You bet.  $37 for an easy win--that NYRA Raceday  Ernie  'could never pick.'

It all starts with being willing to look for the 'possible' long-shot.  

Mr. J: As close as it gets...

Because the 'move' is a long-shot system I hesitate to  use the gambling term ''lock' to describe any of it's selections.  Yesterday, at Gulfstream, Mr. J in race 1 was about as close as it gets.  Sure, the horse showed the required running line.  After closer investigation, the added factors pointed to this horse as a stand out play, at least. 

Key to my decision was J's performance in the first race of its career. On turf, at the same distance, in the same class, the horse recorded a troubled 62 Beyer--more than eight points better than anything else in this race for low level maidens. I have no great love for jock Bocachica, and a decent amount of  respect for the work of  trainer Iadisernia.  Together they score about 10% of the time.

I made a healthy wager at 9-1.  J won easily.