Hard to 'Forget' this one

Don't have a lot of time during the holiday season to post to this blog.  But,, I had to show you Forget the Name.  The Move is a Monster.

Widening lengths

'Paradise' my defense against inner-track woes

Just in time to avoid the calamity that is NYRA's inner-dirt track, I have added Turf Paradise to my short list of  tracks where I can continue to profit from the monster-move.

I celebrated with a substantial wager on mover Enterback.  Importantly, I was able to find a non-move horse that warranted my largest wager of the year.  Teddy the Bear, rewarded my confidence with a convincing  win at 5/2.  Don't know why I stopped on TP years ago.  Glad to find it, again.

Talk about well meant…

To my amazement, Compliance Officer,  monster-move clear as a bell, hovered around 8-1 prior to

Aqueduct's  8th race.  The horse's odds never dipped below 6-1 although, to me, it was at least the second best runner in the field.

I almost hesitated once or twice, while reaching for my wallet again and again to get more money  down on this  apparent gift.

Why was there no wagering action?

Then, absolute last-flash, odds dropped to 9-2. Somebody knew!!!  Officer was never threatened; winning by three lengths.

Speaks for itself

Healing: It only takes one…

Healing…slowly

New Mover

If it ain't broke…

There hasn't been a post to this site since Breeder's Cup day.  November 2 turned out to be a decent wagering day; gaining a small profit on the surrounding cards.  It also marked the beginning of the end.  I'll never learn

Bolstered by my overall success, I decided to tinker with my wagering and selection process in order to move my game 'up in class'–fewer but larger wagers on qualifiers  BIG MISTAKE!  Almost immediately, I began missing bets I normally hit; not betting when I could collect.

That led to my exotic decision-making going bonkers. Then, panic and self-doubt finished the job. I am no longer sure of my name or whether i live on planet Earth. 

Apparently, these periods of time happen to all horseplayers.. I hope this ends quickly. Back to square one

Speaking of tinkering, NYRA has done something to it's website that is completely annoying and has cost me money. Apparently for security reasons, what used to be automatic account funding has turned into an indeterminable amount of time before the deposit shows in the account.  I can trace two uncollected winning bets to the more than three-minute delay.    A side effect of the change causes the server to lock up on exotics.  Please stop shouting about how wonderful your rewards account is–until you fix it for the FAN!

While I'm on the topic, I can't be the only one who finds navigation of the DRF wagering site to be irritating.  God forbid you want to change a bet 'before'  confirm. The platform defaults to WIN betting instead of what I intended.  Beware! Complain!

Hopefully, I'll be back after licking my wounds.

Better Bet? Improbable, but true

'Perfect' two-year-old 'move' exception

Although, I rarely include two-year-olds in my 'move' wagering, I was rewarded with an easy  win by Perfect Setting, Corey Lanerie up.  Take a look at the exotic prices and you'll understand why Setting may be the reason I change my typical two-year-old policy. Had the exacta and naturally across the board–twice.

Just the facts…

Avoiding 'gift horse' syndrome

As elated as I am to have early winners on a card, I am also a bit intimidated.  A good hit early, is supposed to mean that one can't lose for the day. However, with extra money in my pocket, it's difficult not to spread on races where i don't have an opinion. So I TRY to slow to a stop. 

Case in point, at Keeneland, today.  I crushed the first race triple and super and was riding a second race pick-three.  With a minute to go, stewards scratched my move horse--the only contending speed to compete with the odds-on entry.  Of course, you know the rest.  Speed dies, my second pick-three contender loses at the wire.  

Peel off $50 for the rest of the card.  Wallet in pocket. They are not getting me today.

Great start; better finish for day's movers

What a way to start the day!  'Mover' Ain'tnuthingbutakiss leads most of the way to  finish second to odds-on Harbor Kiss at Parx and pays $24; $10.8 and sets up a $224 triple. For me, the only possible wager in the race.

In the final at Belmont, Social Rebellion (two--back move) rallies past everybody to complete a $372 double wheel, and head up a $334 exacta. Social paid $16.8

Time for fine-tuning!!!

Now that the book is published, I intend to plug some holes in my game.

Somewhere in my last thirty years of handicapping, I have developed a bunch of bad habits; Starting with the habit of stopping short.  That is, I  subconsciously stop analyzing when I get the fields down to three contenders.  Maybe, it's laziness, or my constant battle with time.  Most likely, it has everything to do with my 'monster move' study of long shots.  That's now done. 

In any event, it stops today. Time to fine-tune! Joining 'shorts' in my handicapping waste basket  is a tendency to speed read–glancing right over race conditions and a few other essentials in the DRF.  Finally, I am committing to pay more attention to The Beyers.  Hopefully, these corrections will save–and make–money..

Yankee confirms 'the move;' 'Bee' repeats effort

With yesterday's  offering of the second edition of  the 'monster move' system, wanted  today to be a 'monster.'  Mission accomplished by Yankee Diva in Keeneland's first, Diva's running line showed in it's last race in August on turf.  Today, unheralded trainer, Robert Radcliffe hoisted Jock Johnson aboard on dirt,  to score at  $48.20. Go signal was Radcliffe/Johnson 50% winning record.  A  cautious bet–but a winner just the same..

Beeliner did it before. Does it again.

Favorite Third Knight (9-5) at Belmont had been taken to the limit to lose against Beeliner in February.  Beeliner repeated, today, but finished second at 18-1.  Nice triple.  It's an easy game!

Finally! 'Taming the Monster' is published

The second edition of 'the monster move' system is now, finally, on sale at: on the website .  The book contains more than 50 examples of past-performances with results for each and space to record your own observations. Price: $40 for a download. One hit, and the system pays for itself.

Dover Point is 'the point'

Driving home my premise about needing only one good hit was Dover Point at Parx, in the first race, today.  A simple across the board bet: a $2 exacta wheel ($10); a double wheel for $1 with another $2 on the second race favorite ($10, total)–you're reasonably 'a millionaire.'

Key to the who deal is being able to recognize 'mover' Dover as a serious contender.  Horse won by two city blocks.  Publishing the system soon.  Any interest?

Secretariat? Not!

Started today at both Belmont and Keeneland betting against 'Secretariat' running against three-legged horse fields (sic). Obviously, I am being facetious.  But that is how the favorites were bet at both tracks (1-9, 1-5).  Movers at Keeneland ran first and third–nearly netting a 30G super.  Arkasia paid $41.  Belmont fav winner returned a decent superfecta with mover second.  

My point? You gotta at least, look for a longer shot.  Stay tuned!

My nemesis jock balances the books

Hesitated to  post this one.  The reason?  Because I''m not sure that it has anything  to do with handicapping, per se.  This is not about a monster move, although there was one in the race (suspect jock).  In the course of a wagering day, or week, one develops a sense of trends (real or imagined).   In the fourth at Belmont, I was merely determined not to let a noticed trend beat me. And, I won. 

Manuel Franco is one of the hottest apprentices on the Eastern seabird. In the last few months. He has cost me thousands of dollars when I ignored him. And a lot less when I decided to include him in my wager.  Yesterday's ride on Seven Dreams repays some of that money.  With the following $150 double, we'll call it even.

The race itself begged for a a long-shot winner, merely because of an extra half-furlong (6.5).   Seven Dreams showed a love for Belmont.  An exacta wheel cost me $14.  The return? $543..

Repeating my mantra for the umpteenth time…

I've said it before and will continue doing so.  There is nothing like the feeling of a 25-or-30-1 shot rallying down the stretch to win, when you know that so few others in the game have been able to identify and collect on this predictable performance.  This is the reason for my devotion to the 'Monster Move' system.

I nearly jumped out of my skin at Churchill, today, watching the masterful Brian Hernandez beat odds-on favorite with Street Call at 23-1. Then, lone mover at Monmouth– Griff–repeats the long-shot performance for a $30 payoff.  WOW!  Now that I am learning to add superfecta betting to my menu, it's really a celebration.  

The 'Move' is a monster when it hits.  But, I've said that before.

A lesson 'Implied'

One message I keep trying to drive into my head is that successful wagering only takes one good hit. It's a hard lesson to learn–especially when chasing long-shots. But, it's a goal I strive for. Ultimately, it means less outlay, concentrated betting units;  and collecting large exotics more than once.

Such was the case at Belmont Friday.  Two of the three horses I liked finished first and second.  Implied was the 'move horse.'  Exacta came back $300; had it two and one-half times.  Stopped betting. A good day.

Kelly makes it easy

It's rarely as easy and convincing as Kelly Ridge.  The horse showed pace superiority, the all important running line, a drop in class and competent trainer and jockey.  Kelly paid $15,8 and won easily.

Ah, if  i only had the  patience to wait all day for such perfect moves.  Thank goodness, i was all over this one.

Back with a Bang!

Been neglecting to post since a much deserved and required month long vacation in Heaven. Returned to the game on Sunday to rewards of

and

Movers still in effect. 

This is the first official day back to work on the enigma that is thoroughbred handicapping.  Hoping to improve my game by sticking more closely to a few of basic rules, I have recently ignored. Determined to make second-favorites and second-placers the core of my non-mover wagering. 

We'll see. In the meantime, Mr. Rupunzel at Delaware proved the long-shot system is active as usual. Hit the first super since my study of the wager concluded. Have reluctantly paroled a bug jock whose recent performance indicates increased skill.. A good day.

Quiet Favorite, $38; Anything, but…

Where handicapping races is concerned, time is the Luthor to my Superman; the Joker to my Batman. In other words, my

mortal enemy. So be it.

When a clean, clear 'monster mover' comes along, I am really grateful.  In addition to the required running line, a solid mover shows competitive pace  and Beyer factors; or a class drop and rider switch. Importantly, it must be overlooked in the wagering.  Then, selection is quick and relatively confident. Doesn't often happen.

Quiet Favorite was such a horse at Delaware, today.  Though not very familiar with the trainer Reyes, or jock Solis, the runner offered three of four 'signals' to encourage a solid bet and a resulting easy win.  Collections all around–straight betting and all the possible exotics.  Thanks for the clarity.

She's Not Lazy, $39, postpones Spa funeral rites

Well, its official.  Save my magically collecting on a wishful thinking pick-six ticket (not going to happen) 2013 has been my worst Saratoga in 20 years.   

STOP THE PRESSES!!

I was in the process of writing this post bemoaning the last few weeks at The Spa, when…up jumped 'mover' She's Not Lazy, Rosie aboard, to win the 9th race and pay $39.  'Lazy' (one of the few movers to perform well at the track) finished ahead of  my second selection in the race at odds of 7-1. Needless to say, the funeral is postponed until next week.  Especiaily, after the double wheel was completed by Lumineuse at 22-1.

Oh. Saratoga is still a loser for me this year.  But, right now.  Who cares.  The move is a monster when it  hits!

Hmmpfh! ''Slowly I turned…'

I always hate it when the proverbs prove true.  Especially  when I'm found to be the 'poor worker blaming his tools.' Examination of my recent handicapping follies has proven that–to save time– I began meddling with the process, cutting corners, not dotting every 'i', etc.  My bad!

I am back to performing each phase, step-by-step; inch-by-inch and it has already made a difference. (See Reign of  KIngs)

That doesn't' mean my observations about the abominable Saratoga performances of NYRA's better riders  doesn't  hold merit. In particular, one of my favorite jocks has lost at least three races because he can't or won't recognize that track's turf is playing to front runners.  Each time he was on natural front runners, that he strangled out of the gate to the back of the pack–only to miss with with outside rallies.  Somebody needs to pull this guy's coat…off of his head.

Again, thank God for Monmouth!

Time for a Break!

STAY TUNED.

Whatabootie. I'll say!

Non NYRA tracks continue to rescue me from the complete disaster that has been my recent dilemma at Saratoga. There aren't a bunch of good wagers out of town.  At least, there are a few that meet my requirements.

Today, Delaware Racetrack kept me alive long enough (Previous posted mover El Rey Reina won) to capitalize on a solid move in the eighth race.

Trainer Hamilton Smith returned Whatabootie to the races after a six-month layoff with a classic 'monster move' on the turf.  To complete the misdirection, one month later he hoisted veteran jock Carols Marquez on the mare; dropped her in class; and sent her an impossible six furlongs.

A return to turf and  favorite distance--Marquez aboard--completed the signal for me to jump in with both feet.  Whatabootie won easily, paying $21, 

Huh? Last week at The Spa

Befuddled! That's the most perfect word to describe how the last week handicapping Saratoga  has affected (afflicted?) me.  Apparently, I am not alone according to the repeated days of ever-increasing pick-six carryovers  where bettors only had four winners.

What's more puzzling to me than the results is the inexplicable poor rides of some of my favorite, and typically distinguished, jockeys.  They will remain nameless.  But i'd love to interview a few off-camera about strangling front-runners out of the gate, circling five wide around both turns and ignoring the touted clocks in their heads. 

Is Joel Rosario the only jock that set his clock properly?

So many logical and 'move horses' have suffered ridiculous rides that I can't believe there are more than a few happy trainers in upstate New York. Thank, God for Monmouth Park.

Hit man Joe Rocco to the rescue (Again!)

With all the fanfare, hoopla, and handicapping  challenges that mark the Saratoga meet, you may have missed one constant.  Joe Rocco, is this meet's long-shot hit-man.  A glance at his  percentage (15%) in the DRF doesn't tell the whole story.  Of 34 mounts, Hit man Joe has won 5.  No place, no show just wins–at a price. 

He rescued my day with Run at Risk in the seventh at a healthy 8-1.  You heard it here.

Cure for what ails…if you follow the rules

Long, frustrating, tough day was turned around in Delaware's sixth by following a must rule of the Monster Move system.  Always  bet the favorite in an exotic with a 'mover.'

Earlier at the track was disappointed after loading up (and losing) on what seemed like the 'best' mover of the day.  Horse didn't lift a leg.  In the sixth, I hated the favorite Daddy's Moment at 3-5.  Two other movers in the race seemed more likely. Foxy Syd showed last race; El Rey's Reina had flashed the line two back and finished second, last time, at a smaller track.  The tote board made it easy. Foxy opened third fave.  El Rey lingered around 20-1.

The usual across the board bet; and because of the small field, used Rey behind the favorite in a triple that only cost $12.   The return for that investment was $489.

Rey also paid $20, $8.  

I've said it before: 'The move can get you well, quickly!'

Sometimes, it's easy

This game will keep you humble. I hesitate to post some of this stuff because I don't want to seem like a know-it-all.  Which I am not.  And, I'm rarely good with gimme's–those obvious horses that a beg for a solid wager.  Yesterday, Strong Impact qualified for me (Saratoga's seventh).

Today's version, is the only horse that, previously  won at THE TRACK  AND THE DISTANCE in the stellar field comprising Saratoga's Evan Shipman stakes.  Bigger and Bettor is not a mover.  But…..

This is  a game of  advantage.  Seemed like one to me.  Enough to say, I collected all over him.  Thanks for subbing Joe Rocco!

'Move' respect yields giant $765 return

Gave undue props to an unknown rider on borderline 'mover,' Galiana in Saratoga's 10th for an adventurous trip, strong finish to pay 69-1.  Out of respect for the 'move' I back-wheeled the horse in the late double for a $12  wager that returned $765.  Apparently, I missed the rider change to A. Lezcano  who is not, typically, one of my favorites. Didn't find out until I read the chart.  Lezcano rode the the hell out of this winner.  Maybe he's getting better.

Although, I made only a token wager (no across the board or other exotics), I wonder if I would have bet had I known A.L. was riding?  Probably.  Just out  of respect for the inkling of a move on the running line.

Parx posts rare 'move' triple, $17,000+

Parx celebrated the rarest of triples in it's sixth race--a 'move' trifecta.  That's right, all three finishes were movers for a triple payoff of $17,000 plus.  The longest price, Big Feat, rocked the mutuels at 45-1.  It was followed by Freelander and

Pastafigioli, both longer than 15-1.  The exacta returned more than $2,000.

We collected across the board and just missed the exacta, due to a strange ride by the usually dependable Frankie Pennington.  Oh, well.  Collected a show bet on Pasta.

 Lots of room at the cashing windows.

Cotton Blend, $21, ends drought

The major part of Jockey Ferrer's celebration of the win on Cotton Blend was repeatedly flexing the muscle on his right arm.  Then, pointing to it.  Apparently, it took that much strength to get the 9-1 winner home against favored Monsaguska in the seventh race at Momouth. For me, it temporarily ended the mysterious disappearance of  'move horses' that I bemoaned in the previous post. 

I was so happy to see a 'valid' move  that i loaded up. (At least for me). Back wheel of the double, wheel of the next double, wheel exacta and of course,  box exacta with the favorite.  Additionally, I bet  six dollars across  the board.  Whew.

Seemed like a long time between drinks.  I'm no longer thirsty.

The case of the annual vanishing 'moves'

Beyond results, one  verification of  'monster moves' is that, upon review, they make sense.  After the go race, it's usually evident how the change of jockey, distance, or surface was the factor that made the horse a winner–all signaled by our important running line.  And, then there are the others where no amount  of examination will give up the reason one should have bet multitudes instead of pennies on a successful performance.

Additionally, there are repeating 'mystical' periods of time when 'the move disappears from trainer regimens.  Every year, from the end of June to mid-Saratoga the move 'vanishes'  in the pps.  The few that show up, make no effort to perform.  Apparently everyone is waiting for the Saratoga meet to fire.

Sit on my hands is what I do.  Most of my wagering during the glut is second-and beaten-favorites.   What a gip!

Ur kiddin' me, right?

I'm always amazed when fans pick up on a transient trend and ignore an established one.  Such was the case in Belmont's eight race, today.  Having finished my scheduled wagering for the day, I glanced at the 1 1/4 turf event just as a lark. 

It was instantly apparent that there was a lack of  natural front runners but for Starformer listed at 20-1.  The real kicker was that 'star' is trained by Bill Mott, and was being ridden by Edgar Prado. The odds board showed the fans were afflicted with 'The Rosario Effect' making his mount the favorite.

Beyond being one of my favorite trainers, and a 'mover' at that. At any given time of year, Bill Mott is at least one of the top three  trainers in the country. Add turf to the mix and he stands alone.  What's a punter to do? No other handicapping necessary. $10 across the board and a wheel in the daily double.  Longest price on the board completed the double (Rosario, up). It's an easy game.

One reason only: ' the move'

When I adopted the Monster Move method as my mainstay, I immediately changed my process of doing things–and doubled my work.  Rather than examine each card, race by race, I now search the cards of all potential tracks to identify possible movers for the day.

Once that  is done, I go back and handicap each race. Sometimes it's almost a no-brainer.  Today, in Monmouth's sixth PJ Hooker was an outstanding mover. After a five-month layoff, PJ  returned to racing at five-furlongs on the turf--the move race.  The horse is trained by Joe Orseno, who boasts a remarkable 27% record with moving horses from turf to

dirt, and a respectable win percentage when hoisting capable jock Gabriel Saez on a horse.  Good figs at both distance and the track.

I was so impressed that I wagered across the board before the second at Monmouth Park even ran.  There was just one puzzle.  For the life of me, I couldn't figure how  PJ was going to beat Rockstar Royalty no matter how I tried.

As the race drew near, I increased my PJ wager to include doubles with the 5th and 7th.  The 'move' said the horse was a go, regardless of my tiny misgivings.  PJ pulled away from RockStar in the stretch to win and pay on all bets.

Guess, having faith is reason enough.

They really didn't like him

I bet this horse across the board, twice, at 14-1. The Monster Move said he was a contender. Imagine my surprise--and delight--when Lookingatlangfuhr finished second at 50-1.  Look at the place and show prices. Hachacha!

The Move is always there. Even when I am not

One of the nicer facts about the Monster Move is that it will always be there  No need to panic if you miss catching one or two.  Recently, family and business matters have required so much of my attention that I haven't had the time to devote to handicap or post to this blog. 

I have still been able to catch a few movers during this time period including Zero X Zero (see chart). 

Today, marks the first time in weeks that I've been able to spend a whole day on my handicapping. No worries.  At  Belmont, Sheza Heartbreaker rallied up the rail under veteran Cornelio Velasquez to welcome me back with a 25-1 win.  

Newcomer. jockey Sanjur got his first North American win, ever, riding Paster Puckett to a 23-1 wire-to-wire score at Churchill.    Nice returns, any way you look at it.

Seeking a 'jump' in class (wager-wise)

While I wait for the chalk days to pass at my favorite tracks, here is what I am thinking:

It's often  difficult for me to remember  that the the main goal of horse racing wagering is to make the most money, possible.   I get so caught up in the workings and  success of the process that I sometimes relegate profit to second position in importance.  That's easy to do with the move system paying humongous prices, overall.  But, when I pick my head up out of the sand, I still haven't discovered  the one factor that will permit me to  'load up' once a day or week to make the big score. Then, sit on my hands until the next one.

The expert advice has always been: bet fewer, bet larger. In my thirty-years-plus, I have never been able to do it. Probably, it's a matter of not having the insight or the time to discover 'a true 'confident wager' at respectable odds.

The largest wager I've made in years, was $50 to win on Orb in The Derby. Even that, was a saver to ensure I didn't lose money on the five large derby-doubles I was alive with.  It did what it was supposed to–with an $180 profit.  Hindsight, being what it is, I could have used part of the wager for  a $1 exacta  and shown a larger profit.  

Still trying to move up in class where wagers are concerned.

Profiting from 'The Rosario Effect'

As expected, everyone wants to get aboard for the ride. I am surprised that the New York betting public isn't wiser. Joel Rosario can't win every race.  But he's being bet down to 1-2-3/5 on anything. 

 I extolled the virtue of this rider in my blog on April 8 ; advancing him to automatic status at Churchill Downs–where he won the riding title..  Since then, he took the Derby aboard Orb and transferred his tack to the big leagues of NYRA.  I have no doubt he will hold his own, here,  among the best riders in the world.

In the meantime, Rosario is a boon for those of us who believe in reading the form before making a bet.  I have caught surprisingly good prices on several logical winners only because Rosario was riding something else in the race. He is automatically over-bet.  People will eventually catch on Personally, I hope it's later than sooner. 

Kentucky Derby? A Cautious Day for me

Sometimes I get so caught up in the selection process that I lose perspective.  It's on 'big' race days –The Kentucky Derby, The Breeders Cup–that I reverently remember that this game offers me an opportunity to make money. 

I've said it before and will repeat it for new readers.  There most difficult  races to handicap are fields of  the worst horses--or the best horses.

So Many, a 'mover' on the Oaks Day undercard.

As much as i enjoy the history, pageantry and hoopla, I am determined not to lose bundles of money on big race days where every horse looks as good as every other. My typical strategy is to select two numbers for exacta boxes throughout the day ($40).  Then, I study the undercard to see if a real wagering opportunity exists.

Overall, it's a day to watch the 'experts' make like weathermen without a satellite. After months of analysis, interviews with trainers, visits to the barn, reviews of breeding history–nobody knows.

Last year, a Todd Fletcher 'move horse' nearly won it all. I was quite happy to collect place and show.  If I see a mover in the big race, I'll bet it.  Otherwise, a relaxing day of popcorn and soft drinks.

FOOL ME ONCE…

After last year's near-miss, I wasn't letting Todd  catch me napping. (Three horses, better performance by the longest odds.) For that reason, alone, I caught the Princess in the Oaks across the board several times.  And, I'm alive in the Kentucky Derby daily double.  Whoopee!

Taking Time to Review

I have slowed my wagering to  a crawl to give, recently  opened, Belmont Park and Churchill Downs a chance to settle into some 'readable'  form.  So now seems a good time to review my performance, tools, and  strategy. Hopefully I will gather some clues about advancing my game.

Heavenville was a 'not exactly move.' But close enough for an across
the board wager and exacta with the favorite.

Overall, the first quarter of the year has  been better than average .  I have re-confirmed faith in my main selection methods---primariiy, 'the move.' My powers of observation have remarkably improved due to the system. 'And,  I have added Ticketmaker to my tools, while  avoiding getting  caught up in the multi-race wager craze.

I recognized and survived a slump without selling my grandchildren.

My major hurdle is time.  Never enough. As a result,  I still use the 'all button'  way too much. However, my saver wagers have performed superbly. Still searching to make fewer, larger bets. All in all, no complaints.  I'm making money.

I remain a happy $2 bettor.